Possible scenario
Outbreak Uncertainty Worsens
20% Chance
New suspected infections, inconsistent Russian statements, or leaked hospital reports undermine Moscow’s denial of a lab accident. The event begins to look less like a one-off health incident and more like a public-health and biosecurity problem with geopolitical consequences.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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