Possible scenario
Policy Proceeds Narrowly
30% Chance
Hegseth's office implements the recognition cut while emphasizing that individual service members can still request accommodations. The practical effect is narrower than critics fear because commanders use waivers, contract chaplains, and interfaith coverage to manage immediate needs.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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