Possible scenario
Energy Shock Fades
30% Chance
Investors conclude that the CPI increase was mainly an energy shock rather than a broad inflation reacceleration. Falling gasoline and crude prices reduce near-term inflation concern and support a modest risk-on reversal.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
- Technology +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.