Possible scenario
Houthi Counteroffensive
20% Chance
The Houthis absorb the reported losses and respond with a concentrated counterattack using drones, ballistic missiles, and tribal networks west of Marib. This would raise the risk of a wider Saudi-backed response and a renewed threat to energy-linked infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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