Possible scenario
Government Marib Gains
35% Chance
Forces aligned with President Rashad al-Alimi and the Presidential Leadership Council consolidate the reported battlefield momentum around Marib. Houthi losses appear substantial enough to force a tactical withdrawal from parts of the oil corridor, though the Houthis retain capacity to defend nearby highlands and launch drones.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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