Possible scenario
Attritional Frontline Stalemate
30% Chance
The reported casualty figure proves directionally accurate but does not translate into decisive territorial control. Both sides continue artillery, drone, and tribal mobilization around Marib, making this a grinding continuation of the nationwide anti-Houthi offensive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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