Possible scenario
Windfall Reduces Borrowing
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Treasurer Jim Chalmers treats the smaller deficit as a temporary revenue windfall, helped by strong company tax receipts and commodity-linked income. Canberra emphasizes fiscal restraint to protect Australia’s AAA credit rating and avoid adding to inflation pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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