Possible scenario
Spending Pressure Builds
25% Chance
A better deficit gives the Albanese government political room to consider targeted relief before the next budget update. The risk is that new spending offsets the fiscal improvement and complicates the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation task.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Utilities +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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