Possible scenario
RBA Tension Returns
20% Chance
The Reserve Bank of Australia may treat the fiscal surprise as relevant only if it leads to extra demand or confirms stronger nominal income. The key market question becomes whether the improved budget position reduces risk premia or instead delays disinflation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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