Possible scenario
Restart Proves Fragile
25% Chance
The refinery restarts but cannot sustain full operating rates, leaving traders cautious about Midwest gasoline balances. The initial 23-cent wholesale decline partially reverses as buyers rebuild risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- MPC+1.0%
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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