Possible scenario
Other Outages Offset
20% Chance
The Joliet restart helps, but other refinery problems or planned maintenance keep national gasoline supply tight. The market continues treating refining capacity as the key energy chokepoint rather than crude availability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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