Possible scenario
Arms-Race Acceleration
30% Chance
The breakdown at the UN hardens the view that AI weapons development will proceed through national programs rather than multilateral limits. Russia, Ukraine, the US and NATO members accelerate autonomous targeting, counter-drone and command-software procurement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.9%
- Technology +1.2%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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