Possible scenario
Siberian Cluster Expands
30% Chance
A more serious but still geographically bounded outcome is that several hospital staff or close contacts test positive after exposure to the deceased lab worker. Authorities acknowledge a cluster, restrict hospital movement, and intensify prophylactic antibiotic distribution across affected Siberian cities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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