Possible scenario
Antitrust Blocks Path
30% Chance
The most serious risk is that U.S. antitrust officials view another AI model acquisition by Nvidia as a vertical foreclosure threat. Nvidia's GPU dominance, its Hugging Face agreement, and the earlier Run:ai scrutiny give regulators a clear theory of harm.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Business Services -0.5%
Tickers
- NVDA-3.4%
- AMD+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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