Possible scenario
Russia Discounts More
18% Chance
Rather than cutting exports, Russia absorbs the sanctions cost through lower realized prices and steeper freight discounts to Asian buyers. This preserves physical flows but reduces revenue for Russian producers and the Kremlin budget.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- FRO+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.