Possible scenario
Contained Shipping Pressure
45% Chance
Russia keeps targeting vessels and port infrastructure, but the campaign does not fully close the Ukrainian maritime corridor. Ukraine, insurers, and shipowners absorb higher costs while shifting some volumes through the Danube and Romanian routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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