Possible scenario
Street Protests Grow
15% Chance
Trump's comments energize Bolsonaro supporters and bring demonstrations back into major cities. The most likely version remains contained, but a smaller path includes transport blockades or clashes that hit Brazilian risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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