Possible scenario
Narrow Legal Review
20% Chance
The electoral court or prosecutors open a limited review into why some polling places remained open after the scheduled close. The review creates uncertainty but is focused on procedure rather than a full rerun of the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro runoff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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