Possible scenario
Institutions Contain Dispute
55% Chance
Brazil's electoral authorities proceed with certification and Flávio Bolsonaro does not revive the annulment request he already dropped. Trump's statement remains politically noisy but does not materially alter the legal path or transition timetable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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