Possible scenario
Industrial Base Race
25% Chance
The rapid 142-day transition exposes the next constraint: manufacturing scale, electronics supply, and interceptor affordability. The Army and Pentagon are likely to push dual sourcing, modular open architectures, and commercial-style production contracts to avoid a single-vendor bottleneck.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- RTX+0.7%
- AVAV+0.6%
- DRS+0.4%
- LHX+0.4%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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