Possible scenario
Hormuz Risk Worsens
18% Chance
The Iran-Hormuz disruption remains the main driver of record freight rates and keeps long-haul crude trade dislocated. Brent rises on security risk, but Americas heavy crude remains partly stranded because shipping capacity is scarce and expensive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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