Possible scenario
Discounts Deepen Further
45% Chance
Record tanker rates keep Americas crude trapped while Asian buyers continue avoiding long-haul US and Canadian barrels. Heavy grades in Canada, Mexico and the US Gulf trade at steeper discounts, with producers facing margin pressure and refiners benefiting only where they can keep units running.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
Tickers
- -5.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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