Possible scenario
Violent Escalation
25% Chance
A renewed police-protester confrontation turns the weekend into another major flashpoint, especially if images of injuries circulate after the earlier grenade incident. This would increase political risk around the €43 billion 2027 budget cuts and modestly pressure French-exposed sectors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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