Possible scenario
Contained Weekend Unrest
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that demonstrations remain large but broadly contained, with police preventing a repeat of the worst student-riot scenes. Macron and the Interior Ministry continue blaming radical groups for exploiting student anger, while unions and student groups keep pressure on the 2027 budget cuts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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