Possible scenario
Passport Surrender Contained
45% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro complies with the Federal Police summons after consulting lawyers and Senate allies. The Supreme Federal Court and Federal Police keep the dispute within legal channels, limiting the chance of immediate street escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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