Possible scenario
Defiance Triggers Detention
25% Chance
Flávio refuses or fails to surrender his passport by the Federal Police deadline. The Supreme Federal Court treats the refusal as a flight-risk signal, increasing the likelihood of detention or tighter electronic monitoring.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
- Finance -0.6%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.