Possible scenario
Court Compromise Holds
15% Chance
A Supreme Federal Court minister or panel creates a narrow procedural compromise that avoids immediate arrest while preserving travel limits. This allows both the judiciary and Flávio Bolsonaro to claim partial victory, lowering the risk of a sudden confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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