Managed EU Compromise

France and Germany win support for a new emergency trade tool, but the European Commission and smaller member states limit its scope to critical goods, procurement, and security-linked infrastructure. This is the most likely path because the EU has been moving toward de-risking while still trying to avoid a full trade break with China.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.