Possible scenario
Hardline EU Adoption
27% Chance
A coalition led by France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the Baltics moves quickly to give Brussels emergency authority to suspend Chinese market access. This would mark a material escalation in EU-China trade policy, though still short of a systemic crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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