Possible scenario
Phased Technical Rollout
28% Chance
The IEA announces a measured implementation plan that confirms the 100 million barrel figure but avoids flooding the market immediately. This outcome would reflect logistical limits, reserve-management constraints and a desire to preserve leverage if oil prices rebound.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- XOM-0.2%
- CVX-0.2%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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