Possible scenario
Legal Hurdles Persist
25% Chance
The parliamentary vote does not end institutional uncertainty because opposition parties, courts or referendum rules can still slow implementation. The government remains in office, but the reform becomes a continuing political battleground into 2027.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Utilities -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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