Possible scenario
Coalition Strains Return
20% Chance
The reform averts the immediate crisis but does not resolve the coalition's deeper tensions over immigration, taxes, EU budget rules and leadership positioning. Salvini and Forza Italia could use the next budget and regional elections to challenge Meloni's dominance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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