Possible scenario
Coalition Stabilizes
45% Chance
The electoral reform gives Giorgia Meloni enough leverage to keep Fratelli d'Italia, Matteo Salvini's League and Forza Italia aligned. The government uses the vote to move past the immediate crisis and present itself to Brussels and markets as a stable pro-Western administration.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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