Possible scenario
Sustained Hormuz Attrition
40% Chance
Iran continues disabling or damaging commercial vessels without triggering immediate large-scale Western strikes. Kuwait and other Gulf shippers keep some loadings moving, but war-risk premiums and routing delays rise further.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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