Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
25% Chance
Regional mediators use the second Kuwaiti tanker strike to push Iran toward a temporary halt in attacks. Tehran does not reopen nuclear talks immediately, but it allows enough traffic to pass to reduce near-term escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.