Possible scenario
Coalition Naval Escalation
25% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, Kuwait, and other Gulf partners expand escorts and surveillance. This lowers some shipping risk but raises the chance of direct contact between coalition forces and the IRGC Navy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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