Possible scenario
October Hold Prevails
50% Chance
John Williams is a core FOMC voice, so his rejection of an October hike most likely pulls market pricing back toward no change at the next meeting. The Fed keeps December or later meetings conditional on inflation and labor data rather than endorsing an immediate tightening step.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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