Possible scenario
Message Gets Clarified
15% Chance
The New York Fed or Williams clarifies that he was rejecting an October hike, not ruling out further 2026 tightening. This leaves markets with a less dramatic interpretation: October is unlikely, but December remains live.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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