Possible scenario
Data Reopens Debate
25% Chance
Williams' remarks slow the rush toward an October hike, but the Fed remains data dependent. Strong inflation, wage, or activity data could quickly revive the case for another 2026 increase and partially reverse the dovish market move.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.9%
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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