Possible scenario
Full Ban Reversal
20% Chance
A more aggressive outcome is that the United States builds a shareholder coalition to reverse the bank’s oil and gas restrictions broadly. This would mark a significant policy win for Bessent and fossil-fuel-producing developing economies, though actual project approvals would still take time.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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