Possible scenario
Rapid Trump Detente
38% Chance
Paxton and Trump-aligned operatives move quickly to contain the damage because both sides benefit from keeping Texas Republicans unified. The most likely outcome is a partial reconciliation that lets Paxton keep Trump voters while avoiding another public fight.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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