Possible scenario
Democrats Exploit Rift
20% Chance
James Talarico’s campaign uses the audio to argue Paxton is politically damaged and focused on internal Republican drama. The leak becomes a fundraising and persuasion tool, especially among independents and college-educated suburban voters.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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