Possible scenario
Harassment Continues
25% Chance
Iran continues trying to raise costs for shippers through missiles, drones, and fast-boat harassment, but U.S. and allied naval operations prevent a full shutdown. Oil prices remain volatile because the conflict is still active even as barrels continue moving.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Consumer Services -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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