Possible scenario
Tariff Inflation Persists
15% Chance
The market focuses on the July tariff-payment data and the risk that importers are passing costs into consumer prices. This makes Daly's warning more credible and increases concern that goods inflation will not normalize without tighter policy.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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