Possible scenario
Hawkish Repricing Deepens
45% Chance
Markets treat Mary Daly's warning as confirmation that the Federal Reserve is becoming less tolerant of tariff- and AI-driven inflation. With Williams having made a similar point in late September, investors increasingly expect at least one more 2026 hike unless inflation data soften quickly.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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