Possible scenario
Fed Waits Longer
25% Chance
Daly's warning is seen as conditional rather than a firm signal of imminent action. If incoming data show slowing hiring or easing core services inflation, the Fed can maintain a hawkish tone while delaying another increase.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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