Possible scenario
Work Starts Narrowly
25% Chance
The administration may try to proceed with activities it characterizes as reversible or outside the judge's order, such as fencing, surveying, equipment staging, or non-tree-related site preparation. This would preserve momentum for the redesign while testing the exact scope of the halt.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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