Possible scenario
Pardons Are Issued
27% Chance
Trump could move from assertion to action by issuing broad preemptive pardons for political allies and possibly himself. That would deepen the legal controversy while initially placing the burden on prosecutors and courts to challenge the documents.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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