Possible scenario
Institutional Clash Escalates
20% Chance
A more disruptive scenario would involve prosecutors, inspectors general, state attorneys general or Congress directly challenging the White House’s implementation of the claimed pardon power. This would move the issue from legal theory to a visible separation-of-powers confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.0%
- Finance -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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