Possible scenario
Courts Take Control
38% Chance
The most likely path is rapid litigation over whether a president can pardon himself and whether blanket ally pardons can block future prosecutions. Federal courts, not Congress, become the main venue because the claim turns on the Constitution’s pardon clause and prior DOJ Office of Legal Counsel positions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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